Dustin Poirier has been installed as the favorite in his UFC 230 fight against Nate Diaz on Nov. 3 fight in Madison Square Garden.
Dave Mason, the Sports Brand Manager at BetOnline.ag opened lines on Friday with Poirier as the -175 favorite, meaning you would have to bet $175 to win $100. Diaz was listed at +150, meaning if you get $100, you would make a $150 profit if you bet on him and he won.
Poirier (24-5, 1 no contest) has been the more active fighter of the two, having fought six times, with four wins, one loss and one no contest since Diaz’s last fight, a majority decision loss to Conor McGregor on Aug. 20, 2016, in Las Vegas.
The activity would appear to be the prime consideration in the odds, since Diaz (19-11) is naturally bigger, having fought at both welterweight and lightweight, while Poirier’s career saw him fight at featherweight and lightweight, plus Diaz has been more successful against similar opponents.
Poirier fought McGregor at featherweight in 2014, and lost via TKO at UFC 178 in just 1:46. Diaz fought McGregor twice, in two of the biggest money fights in UFC history, winning the first via second-round submission and losing a close decision in the rematch, both of which were fought at welterweight.
Diaz also beat Michael Johnson at lightweight in 2015, while Poirier was stopped in just 1:35 by Johnson at lightweight in 2015.
Their other common opponent, Jim Miller, saw Poirier win a decision over in 2017 and Diaz finish by second-round choke in 2012, also both taking place at lightweight.
The winner of the fight would likely be in line for a lightweight championship fight. Poirier has established himself as a top contender with wins over former champions Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez, as well as Justin Gaethje. Diaz hasn’t fought, but has one of the biggest names in the sport from his fights with McGregor, and a win over Poirier would make him the biggest name contender in the division except for McGregor.