Paul Gift’s MMA prediction algorithm takes a crack at UFC 214’s matchups.
The win probabilities for UFC 214’s qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where the two fighters are not heavyweights and have at least four fully-documented prior fights. For more on the prediction model and Alternative Stats for tonight’s key matchups, see yesterday’s piece.
Jon Jones (66.2%) over Daniel Cormier (33.8%)
Demian Maia (52.5%) over Tyron Woodley (47.5%)
Robbie Lawler (51.7%) over Donald Cerrone (48.3%)
Jason Knight (51.6%) over Ricardo Lamas (48.4%)
Aljamain Sterling (65.2%) over Renan Barao (34.8%)
Drew Dober (75.7%) over Josh Burkman (24.3%)
Current Bankroll: $10,000
Given the money lines as of this writing, the model only had one bet on the night for $50 (0.5%) on Maia at +170. The backtesting results shared yesterday were for 523 predicted fights and 222 bets made over a 3 ½ year period of pretending to run it live. The first actual live picks take place today. Let’s see how this goes.
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul is an economics professor who covers MMA analytics and business for Bloody Elbow and is a licensed judge for the California Amateur Mixed Martial Arts Organization (CAMO). Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.