How did the fight algorithm see tonight’s matchups? After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 216 in Vegas.
The win probabilities for UFC 216’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where the two fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For more on the Alternative Stats for tonight’s key matchups, see Wednesday’s piece.
Kevin Lee (59.7%) over Tony Ferguson (40.3%)
Demetrious Johnson (63%) over Ray Borg (37%)
Beneil Dariush (64.1%) over Evan Dunham (35.9%)
Brad Tavares (59.3%) over Thales Leites (40.7%)
Current Bankroll: $9,536.86
This bet will likely determine if the model gets off to a better or worse start than it did in the 3 1⁄2 years of backtesting when it got down to $9,415.72 after two months before taking off later. It has $262.26 on Lee at +215 (as of this writing).
Enjoy the glorious fights!
Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.
Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating for Bloody Elbow and MMA business for Forbes. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.