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UFC on FOX 21 odds, gambling strategy guide

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It’s fight night and so we are back again with another gambling preview of the fights, the odds, and my own personal breakdown of where the value lies. Fights with debuting fighters get less in-depth analysis because stats aren’t available and same goes for fighters with only a couple of UFC bouts.

Also, just to clarify because I’ve gotten some questions about this: the number after the odds on each fighter is the percentage probability of victory that those odds imply. That means Carlos Condit at -130 says he will win that fight 56.52% of the time. If you think he wins it more than that, then you should bet it because there is inherent value in the line.

As always, all stats come from FightMetric and all the odds are from Best Fight Odds. Net Value means how much money you would have made if you bet $100 on that fighter in every one of his/her fights that odds could be found for and is calculated using the closing odds for each fight.

Doubly as always, I’m trying to provide the most thorough guide I can for those who want to legally bet or who just enjoy following along. If you are a person who chooses to gamble, only do so legally, responsibly, and at your own risk.

Breakdown

Full disclosure: I’m an unabashed Carlos Condit mark. I love watching him fight and have been pretty vocal about thinking he should have beaten Robbie Lawler for the welterweight title and that he is the best 170-pound fighter in the world. As such, I think he is going to finish Demian Maia.

Maia’s is one of the most interesting fighters in MMA, a throwback to a time of one-dimensional grapplers in an age where striking is the more vaunted skillset. He succeeds ….View full article

Source:: mma fighting